The serious reputational risk arising from the Ceuta crisis

Regardless of whether or not the analyses circulating in recent days through the national media and social media regarding the causes of the migration crisis and Morocco’s true intentions regarding Ceuta – and Melilla – are accurate, the fact remains that the mass arrival of people in Spain’s first autonomous city in the final days of July has led to media coverage employing narratives that are likely to seriously damage bilateral relations and, consequently, Spanish companies’ business dealings with the neighbouring country.

Morocco’s image, severely tarnished

Morocco is suffering a very serious reputational blow as a result of this episode, primarily at an international level. Although EU capitals were fairly cautious in not pointing the finger at Rabat and initially only criticised Spain for failing to protect the border, the fact is that the situation has not gone down well in Europe and reinforces the view that Morocco is using the migration issue to further its own interests. An image has been conveyed of a complete lack of police and border control on the part of a country that seeks to host international events, boasts of its intelligence services and aspires to be designated a ‘safe country’ – that is, to be subcontracted by the EU to stem migration flows in exchange for vast sums of money. And, above all, at a time when many European countries are drawn to Algeria, with which they have been strengthening their ties for energy and trade reasons.

Secondly, the incident brings to light a source of deep national shame: the fact that 80,000 Moroccans are demonstrating to the world their determination to leave their country at any cost in search of a better life stands in stark contrast to the official narrative regarding the kingdom’s development and to the dazzling image it sought to project abroad through a policy of grandiose stadiums and infrastructure projects. It is perhaps for this reason that the incident is receiving infinitely less media attention in Morocco than it does on a daily basis in Spain; and it is precisely this that has led certain Moroccan media outlets to limit and redirect their analysis of the matter towards outdated sovereignty claims regarding Ceuta and Melilla – claims that have never been on Rabat’s (official) agenda.

In Spain, despite the government’s firm defence of its ‘excellent’ relations with Rabat, the main reputational impact on Morocco is being felt in the media and amongst the public. Almost all Spanish media outlets have dismissed the ‘mafia’ theory put forward by Moncloa and have adopted the view that Morocco actively organised the ‘invasion’ or, at the very least, that the incident forms part of a passive ‘hybrid war’ manoeuvre against our country. Even media outlets traditionally aligned with the left generally adopt a warmongering narrative and frame relations with the neighbouring country in terms of hostility. Thus, the country’s leading newspapers and broadcasters fill their articles and opinion pieces with comparisons between the two countries’ armies, analyses of the conditions for the mobilisation of reservists, or reports on the alleged hostile presence of Moroccan spies on Spanish territory.

This widespread narrative has also taken hold amongst the general public, reinforcing their view of Maghreb migrants as ‘invaders’ and of Morocco as a hostile country. It is no surprise, then, that in the early days of the crisis, La Razón published a survey – admittedly based on a small sample of just 1,000 respondents reached by telephone – according to which 77.3 per cent of those surveyed believed that “Morocco is behaving like an enemy” – a figure that rises to almost 100 per cent amongst right-wing voters – and 75 per cent believed that “Morocco will dare to repeat this invasion manoeuvre”. This negative view appears to have been on the rise – subject to the usual caveats regarding limited surveys – as four days ago, the newspaper El Mundo ran the headline “90 per cent see Morocco as being behind the invasion of Ceuta”. Furthermore, the Ministry of Inclusion’s Observatory on Racism and Xenophobia detected a sharp increase in hate speech on social media in the days following the mass arrival, directed mainly at migrants from North Africa.

The impact on business

The widespread perception of Morocco as an enemy, a potential aggressor, a violator of Spanish sovereignty or, at the very least, a blackmailer and an irresponsible actor in relation to migration, poses a growing reputational risk to Spanish companies and organisations with a presence and interests in the neighbouring country.

The continuous dissemination of news stories using this narrative of confrontation and portraying Morocco as the perpetrator of a hybrid attack – or of an incident that seriously affects the security of the population of Ceuta – has a clear psychological effect that alters Spanish citizens’ perception of Morocco; they will increasingly regard it as an unreliable, unsafe and even hostile country towards Spain, which is likely to influence their economic decisions – such as which products they buy, where they travel, whom they contract, and so on.

Not surprisingly, a section of public opinion – the most radicalised – might perceive the activities of Spanish companies in Morocco as collaboration with a hostile country and call for a boycott of their products or services. Indeed, just as agricultural products of Moroccan origin came under fire during last year’s ‘tractor protests’, the first calls on social media not to buy from Spanish companies selling goods of Moroccan origin can already be identified.

In the neighbouring country, the growing nationalist-sovereignist narrative employed by some media outlets and commentators – which tends to portray Spain as an occupying power maintaining colonial exclaves in Africa that it ought to return to Morocco – also has the potential – although in this case it has received far less media coverage – to influence the behaviour of a section of the Moroccan public, who may begin to boycott all things Spanish and turn to other international alternatives.

Although we will need to monitor how the crisis in Ceuta unfolds over the coming months and how Spain and Morocco respond, the fact remains that the message conveyed by the Spanish media to the public may already be altering their economic behaviour and shifting their perception of Morocco from that of a reliable neighbour with whom to maintain mutually beneficial relations to that of an enemy or hostile country, thereby penalising those who maintained bilateral relations prior to the crisis.